How Predictive Is UWSA 1 for Step 1?

UWSA 1 has been submitted to Predict My Step Score 78,899 times and tracked against the real Step 1 results students went on to report. In that data, UWSA 1 was a strong pass signal — well ahead of a coin flip, ranking #1 of 14 practice exams.

What is UWSA 1?

The UWorld Self-Assessments (UWSA 1, UWSA 2 and, for some Steps, UWSA 3) are UWorld's full-length practice exams, taken in timed blocks like the real test. The report gives a 3-digit score estimate, an equated percent correct, your percentile among UWorld users and a breakdown by subject and system. They are written by the same team as the UWorld question bank, so they feel like harder QBank questions, and their score estimate comes from UWorld's own model rather than the NBME's.

What is a good UWSA 1 score?

In our data, UWSA 1 scores ranged from 18% to 88%. Since Step 1 is pass/fail, there is no target number to hit: a "good" UWSA 1 score is one that sits comfortably inside the range where passing was the norm for students in our data, with enough margin that one rough block on the day would not put you at risk.

When should you take UWSA 1?

Most students take the UWSAs in the last two to three weeks of dedicated study — UWSA 1 first, as a diagnostic, and UWSA 2 closer to the exam as the final readiness check — with enough days in between to act on the weak areas each report flags.

Does it matter when you take UWSA 1?

Timing matters twice over. First, a score from six weeks out is a snapshot of a student who then kept studying, so early tests tend to sit below the real result — much of what looks like "underprediction" is simply improvement after the test. Second, our predictor does not treat every score you enter equally: each one is weighted by the exam's R² and by how recently you took it, with a recency factor that decays exponentially from your most recent test back to your oldest, and your three most recent scores drive the final adjustment. Enter the days-before-exam for each test honestly — it changes the answer.

Enter your UWSA 1 score

UWSA 1 score

Predict my Step 1 score

Takes you to the predictor with UWSA 1 already filled in — add your other practice exams there for the full prediction.

How UWSA 1 compares

Wondering whether to take UWSA 1 next? See which practice tests are most predictive.

UWSA 1 vs the other UWorld self-assessments

UWSA 1 is one of 2 UWorld self-assessments in our Step 1 data, and they are not interchangeable: predictive power differs from form to form. The others — UWSA 2 — each have their own page, and the full side-by-side ranking is available to premium users. How predictive is UWSA 2?

Frequently asked

Is UWSA 1 accurate?

In our data UWSA 1 was a strong pass signal — well ahead of a coin flip. No single practice test settles pass/fail on its own, though — combining your scores, weighted by each exam's track record and timing, gives a much better read than any one sitting. Predict your Step 1 score →

Does UWSA 1 overpredict or underpredict Step 1?

Step 1 is pass/fail, so there is no point bias to report. In our data UWSA 1 was a strong pass signal — well ahead of a coin flip.

Where does this data come from?

78,899 UWSA 1 scores have been submitted to Predict My Step Score so far. Whenever a student also reports their actual Step 1 result, the pair goes into the model behind this page; it was last refit on 2026-05-14.

Can't I just ask ChatGPT how predictive UWSA 1 is?

Not reliably. A prediction is only as good as the paired data behind it: real UWSA 1 scores matched to the real Step 1 result those same students went on to get. General-purpose AI models are trained on forum posts and articles, not on verified outcomes, so what you get back is a summary of anecdotes rather than a calibrated estimate. The numbers on this page come from students who reported both. Read more →

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Data refreshed 2026-05-14.

All Step 1 practice exams · UWSA 2