Which Practice Exam Is Most Predictive for Step 1?

Predict My Step Score has predicted 1,212,572 tests, tracking practice scores against real Step 1 results for years. In that data, UWSA 1 was the most predictive of 14 practice exams.

Wondering which NBME or UWSA to take next? See which practice tests are most predictive.

Most predictive

#1 UWSA 1 (UWorld Self-Assessment 1) — the strongest single predictor in our Step 1 data.

How to use practice exams for Step 1

Step 1 is pass/fail, so the question is not "what score" but "am I safely above the line". Use the NBME forms as spaced checkpoints — each reports an estimated probability of passing — and add a UWorld self-assessment for a harder, timed sitting. Take the Free 120 in the final week for the interface. In our data UWSA 1 tracked the real result most closely; the ranking above shows how the rest compare.

All Step 1 practice exams

CBSE · Free 120 · NBME 25 · NBME 26 · NBME 27 · NBME 28 · NBME 29 · NBME 30 · NBME 31 · NBME 32 · NBME 33 · UWorld QBank · UWSA 1 · UWSA 2

How this is measured

A paired submission is one student who entered a practice exam score and later reported their actual Step 1 result. For each practice exam we fit a regression on every pair and report how much of the variation in real scores it explains (AUC, since Step 1 is pass/fail). Exams with fewer than 10 pairs are not listed. Data refreshed 2026-05-14.

This is also why a general-purpose AI can't answer this question for you. A prediction is only as good as the paired data behind it — real practice scores matched to the real result those same students went on to get. A chatbot has read the forum threads, but it has never seen verified practice-to-result pairs, so it can only repeat what students remember. Read: ChatGPT is a great medical tutor and a bad score predictor →