How Predictive Is NBME 9 for Step 2 CK?

NBME 9 has been submitted to Predict My Step Score 18,456 times and tracked against the real Step 2 CK results students went on to report. In that data, NBME 9 showed moderate predictive power: a clear link to the real score, with plenty of individual variation.

What is NBME 9?

The NBME Comprehensive Clinical Science Self-Assessments (CCSSA) — the numbered "NBME forms" — are written by the National Board of Medical Examiners, the organisation that writes Step 2 CK itself, and report an approximate 3-digit score. Each form is a distinct test: newer forms track the current exam blueprint more closely, and older ones are retired over time.

What is a good NBME 9 score?

In our data, NBME 9 scores ranged from 176 to 279. Real scores usually landed well higher than the NBME 9 score, but the link is real but loose: two students with the same NBME 9 score can finish well apart on the real exam. A "good" NBME 9 score is one that puts your likely outcome comfortably above the score you need — run it through the predictor to see where you stand.

When should you take NBME 9?

NBME forms work best as spaced checkpoints through dedicated study, roughly one every one to two weeks, saving the newest forms for the final stretch since they match the current exam most closely. In our data, the gap between NBME 9 and the real result was larger than for most Step 2 CK practice exams — the pattern you would expect from a test many take early and then improve on.

Does it matter when you take NBME 9?

Timing matters twice over. First, a score from six weeks out is a snapshot of a student who then kept studying, so early tests tend to sit below the real result — much of what looks like "underprediction" is simply improvement after the test. Second, our predictor does not treat every score you enter equally: each one is weighted by the exam's R² and by how recently you took it, with a recency factor that decays exponentially from your most recent test back to your oldest, and your three most recent scores drive the final adjustment. Enter the days-before-exam for each test honestly — it changes the answer.

Enter your NBME 9 score

NBME 9 score

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Takes you to the predictor with NBME 9 already filled in — add your other practice exams there for the full prediction.

How NBME 9 compares

Wondering whether to take NBME 9 next? See which practice tests are most predictive.

NBME 9 vs the other NBME forms

NBME 9 is one of 8 NBME forms in our Step 2 CK data, and they are not interchangeable: predictive power differs from form to form. The others — NBME 10, NBME 11, NBME 12, NBME 13, NBME 14, NBME 15, NBME 16 — each have their own page, and the full side-by-side ranking is available to premium users. How predictive is NBME 10? · How predictive is NBME 11? · How predictive is NBME 12? · How predictive is NBME 13? · How predictive is NBME 14? · How predictive is NBME 15? · How predictive is NBME 16?

Frequently asked

Is NBME 9 accurate?

NBME 9 showed moderate predictive power in our data: a clear link to the real score, with plenty of individual variation. But no practice test is "accurate" on its own — most are taken while you are still improving, so the number you see is rarely the number you get. Combining your scores, weighted by each exam's track record and timing, gives a sharper answer than any single test. Predict your Step 2 CK score →

How far off is NBME 9 usually?

Like most practice tests, NBME 9 is usually taken while you are still improving, so real scores tend to come in higher. What matters is the size of that gap, and for NBME 9 it is larger than for most Step 2 CK practice exams in our data. The exact figures power our predictor rather than this page — it corrects for NBME 9's gap and for when you took each exam, automatically. Run your scores through it →

Is NBME 9 or NBME 16 more predictive?

NBME 16 is more predictive in our data. The exact gap is part of the full ranking, which is available to premium users.

Where does this data come from?

18,456 NBME 9 scores have been submitted to Predict My Step Score so far. Whenever a student also reports their actual Step 2 CK result, the pair goes into the model behind this page; it was last refit on 2026-05-14.

Can't I just ask ChatGPT how predictive NBME 9 is?

Not reliably. A prediction is only as good as the paired data behind it: real NBME 9 scores matched to the real Step 2 CK result those same students went on to get. General-purpose AI models are trained on forum posts and articles, not on verified outcomes, so what you get back is a summary of anecdotes rather than a calibrated estimate. The numbers on this page come from students who reported both. Read more →

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Data refreshed 2026-05-14.

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