Which Practice Exam Is Most Predictive for Step 3?
Predict My Step Score has predicted 1,212,572 tests, tracking practice scores against real Step 3 results for years. In that data, UWSA 2 was the most predictive of 7 practice exams.
Wondering which NBME or UWSA to take next? See which practice tests are most predictive.
| Rank | Practice exam | Predictive power |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UWSA 2 | High |
| 2 | Practice exam | — |
| 3 | Practice exam | — |
| 4 | Practice exam | — |
| 5 | Practice exam | — |
| 6 | Practice exam | — |
| 7 | Practice exam | — |
Some Step 3 practice tests miss your real score by 20+ points, and one NBME form barely tracks it at all. Don't find out which on exam day.
Unlock the full ranking + your predicted scoreMost predictive
#1 UWSA 2 (UWorld Self-Assessment 2) — the strongest single predictor in our Step 3 data.
How to use practice exams for Step 3
Step 3 has fewer options: two UWorld self-assessments, the Free 137, and the NBME CCMSA forms, which report on a 10–800 scale and which the NBME says are not designed to predict the exam. Take UWSA 1 early and UWSA 2 near the end, and lean on the ranking above for how much each one is worth trusting. In our data UWSA 2 was the most predictive.
All Step 3 practice exams
Free 137 · NBME 5 · NBME 6 · NBME 7 · UWorld QBank · UWSA 1 · UWSA 2
How this is measured
A paired submission is one student who entered a practice exam score and later reported their actual Step 3 result. For each practice exam we fit a regression on every pair and report how much of the variation in real scores it explains (R²). Exams with fewer than 30 pairs are not listed. Data refreshed 2026-05-14.
This is also why a general-purpose AI can't answer this question for you. A prediction is only as good as the paired data behind it — real practice scores matched to the real result those same students went on to get. A chatbot has read the forum threads, but it has never seen verified practice-to-result pairs, so it can only repeat what students remember. Read: ChatGPT is a great medical tutor and a bad score predictor →
One practice test is a guess. Your full set of scores is a prediction.
The predictor combines every practice exam you have taken — weighted by how predictive each one is and how recently you took it — into a single prediction with a 95% confidence interval.
Predict my Step 3 scorePremium adds the full ranking, unlimited predictions, and tracking over time.
