Result
Your estimated score is:
Submitted Practice Exams:
NBME 28: 63 (23 days out)
NBME 30: 64 (10 days out)
NBME 27: 64 (90 days out)
NBME 26: 64 (15 days out)
NBME 25: 70 (10 days out)
NBME 29: 64 (20 days out)
What to do next?
- Feeling like your not going to reach your target score, or are you not noticing an improvement in your NBME scores? Use StudyPlan Pros to help you come up with a study plan that will get you the score you need.
- Take another NBME practice exam! Not sure which one to take? Go to the Statistics page and see which NBME is most predictive for Step 1
- Use new study materials. Want to see what the most popular resources are for Step 1? Go to Most Popular Study Materials
Why Do NBME and PMSS Pass Probabilities Differ?
- Multiple Tests vs. One Snapshot. The NBME pass probability reflects a single test at a specific point in time. PMSS aggregates all of your practice exam data—older scores, trends over time, exam dates—which often yields a different (and usually more conservative) picture.
- Differences in Underlying Data & Algorithms. NBME uses a formula based on how past test-takers with similar single-test performances fared on the real exam (as far as we can tell. It is not clear). PMSS, on the other hand, factors in multiple exams and data points, using a broader set of user outcomes to calculate your probability of passing.
- Encouragement vs. Realistic Caution. Some students feel the NBME pass probability can be quite optimistic—possibly to encourage them to proceed with the real exam. PMSS aims to be transparent and realistic by incorporating potential dips or older scores into your forecast, rather than basing everything on one “good day.”
- Longitudinal Trends & Score Trajectories. PMSS weighs how your performance has changed over time. If your previous NBME scores were lower or you’ve taken an exam weeks/months ago, that data is still relevant. NBME’s single-exam snapshot might not capture those fluctuations.
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